Andy Burnham is quickly emerging as the obvious replacement for Keir Starmer. In a head-to-head leadership contest between the three likely forerunners, 29% of the public would want Burnham to win, compared with 16% for Starmer and just 8% for Wes Streeting. But beneath that headline is hesitation, with just under a quarter (23%) saying 'none of the above', with the same share unsure. When asked more broadly who should replace Starmer if he resigns, 20% chose Burnham, with a comparable amount (22%) saying 'none of the above' and 33% unsure.

As Tony Blair noted in a reflective, albeit awkwardly timed, essay this week, the instinct to reach for a Burnham reset as a silver bullet for Labour's governing problems misses the core of what has gone wrong. The problem is not only in the leadership, but in the condition of the party itself. Labour's 2024 victory owed much to Conservative unpopularity, rather than a clear long-term vision of its own. That absence cannot be resolved simply by changing leader.

Gorton and Denton was always going to test Labour. A working-class constituency, represented consistently by Labour since 1935, became a live experiment: is Labour still the natural home of working-class voters, in an era of a Reform insurgency on the Right, and growing Green momentum on the Left?

By the end of the night, the answer looked uncomfortable. Labour finished third on 25.4%, behind the Green Party (40.6%) and Reform (28.7%). The key question now is whether this was a local mishap, or a warning signal of a deeper structural shift on the Left.

The fallout over the Defence Investment Plan has brought defence spending to the top of Andy Burnham's in-tray, exposing tensions between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury. In his resignation letter, John Healey stated that “the Treasury has been unwilling to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.” Now he is the chancellor the exchequer.

The row has largely been framed as a dispute over money. But if the public already supports higher defence spending, why has the government struggled to act so far?

With the news that twelve prisoners have been accidentally released in the past three weeks – on top of the 91 accidentally freed between April and October – it might not be surprising that confidence in the British justice system is in question. Add to that the 417-day average waits faced by adult rape survivors between an offender being charged and the case being completed in the Crown Court, and it's clear something isn't working.

As such, the results of our latest polling with The Spectator that explored public opinion on the justice system were disheartening but unsurprising. Simply put, the people would agree with the basic premise that the justice system just isn't working very well.

Foreign policy can define a premiership. Just ask Tony Blair, whose decision to join the Iraq War became the defining controversy of his time in office, overshadowing much of what he achieved domestically.

Two decades later, the legacy of Iraq still looms over British foreign policy. It shapes how the public views military intervention, how politicians justify the use of force, and how closely Britain should align itself with the United States when faced with conflict.

On 8 December 2024, rebel forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Damascus. With Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Daraa already under rebel control, the Assad regime crumbled — and by nightfall, President Bashar al-Assad had fled.

For many Syrians, this was a moment of catharsis. After 24 years of dictatorial rule and over a decade of lethal civil war, there was a sense of hope for something different.

Generative AI tools are getting more powerful by the week, and they're now a routine part of how content is created online. What started as a novelty – funny pictures of politicians, selfies transformed into faux oil paintings – has evolved into darker territory. One of the most sensitive developments is the ability to generate sexual images of real people, so-called 'undressing', without their consent. The practice raises questions that straddle long-standing concerns over image-based abuse, as well as debates surrounding AI governance and the age-old question of freedom of expression.

Research from the Center for Countering Digital Hate found that Grok, the chatbot from Elon Musk's xAI, generated an estimated three million sexualised images in just 100 days, including 23,000 images of children. Cases like these have pushed the issue of AI-based sexual abuse firmly onto policymakers' desks.

I’m Lola, a political researcher and writer based in London.

I grew up in London in a blended Indian-Jewish family. Growing up between different cultures made me curious about the way identity shapes how people see the world, and how history, politics and the media influence those perceptions. That curiosity eventually became an interest in public opinion, democratic decision-making and the role information plays in shaping political behaviour.

Today I work as a Political Research Executive at Opinium, where I help design and deliver public opinion research for government, charities and private sector organisations. My work spans the full research process, from questionnaire design and survey methodology to statistical analysis and communicating findings, and I co-lead Opinium’s fortnightly voting intention poll, published in The Observer. Alongside client work, I write regularly about polling, political behaviour and current affairs.

Alongside my day job, I’m involved with Chatham House as a Common Futures Conversations member and Policy Leadership Fellow, where I contribute to discussions on international affairs and emerging policy challenges. I also write geopolitical analysis for Global Weekly, with a particular interest in conflict, security and open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Before moving into political research, I completed an MSc in International Public Policy at University College London, graduating with Distinction. My dissertation examined how government disinformation affects democratic decision-making in Europe, combining quantitative analysis with case studies of Hungary and Poland. More broadly, I’m interested in questions of truth, perception and knowledge: how people come to believe what they believe, how our shared understanding of reality is being reshaped in the modern era, and what this means for democratic societies that depend on a common basis of fact.

I’ve become less interested in what people think than in why they think it. Whether through polling, data analysis, OSINT or writing, I’m interested in understanding how information, identity and lived experience shape the decisions people make.

Outside of work, you’ll usually find me arguing about politics, hosting dinner parties, or chaturanga-ing in the yoga studio. I use this site to share my thoughts on polling, geopolitics and the changing information environment.